Matt Holiday - Tale of Rising Star

Matt Holliday had been a cult favorite for fantasy owners as far back as the end 2004 when he showed he had 20 HR potential by socking 14 HR in about 120 games. Even more so, in his last 57 games that year he he batted .311 with .508 slugging percentage, promising great things to come.

And he delivered. In 2005 playing in 125 games this time, he belted 19 HR and stole 14 bases. Last year he 34 HR drove in 114, scored 119, and batted .326 and was thus considered one of the elite fantasy outfielders available coming into this year. And we of course all know how great his 2007 campaign turned out, setting career marks in just about every statistic that matters: G, R, H, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, BB, AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, & TB to name the standard ones.

What we forget, or at least we fail to recognize, is how consistently he has progressed through the years. Through the wonders of the modern computing, we can track his rise t0 stardom on literally a game by game basis. The chart below depicts Holliday's AVG, OBP, and SLG day by day since his first game back on April 16, 2004, it is quite remarkable:

As you can plainly see, something clicked for H0lliday around his 59th game mark in his rookie season where he has literally been on a tear ever since, almost improving his rate stats on a weekly basis for three and a half years. Think about that; his only prolonged slump since then came at the beginning of 2006 when after about a month of play his OPS was stuck at .740 (his 2006 OPS, not his career).

His Batting Average, On-Base Percentage, and Slugging Percentage has continued to improve and does so to this day. Each season has been better than the last:

2004 - .290 / .349 / .488
2005 - .307 / .361 / .505
2006 - .326 / .387 / .586
2007 - .340 / .405 / .607

Additionally, Holliday has considerably improved his ability to put the bat on the ball, the key component to any players longevity - he's cut down his strike out rate:

Not coincidentally, Holliday's strikeout rate began to plummet around the same time his rate stats began to improve. Some select dates for his career AB/K Rate:

6/16/04 (55th Game) - 4.1 (a strikeout every 4.1 AB)
8/09/04 (105th Game) -4.6
5/38/05 (165th Game) -4.8
8/29/05 (215th Game) -5.2
3/19/06 (260th Game) -5.4

And has remained in the 5.2-5.4 range ever since.

Regardless of how well Holliday performs in the World Series we should all take a step back and appreciate how good the 27 year old has become.