Disecting Keepers

I am woefully late. By this time each year I normally have my keepers identified and have made a few trades to bolster my lineup heading into the next season. I am of course embellishing a wee little bit, but it is never too early to review your roster and anticipate upcoming changes for the new season.

The team I pay most attention to is my Moria Shadow in the SRB league mentioned in several other posts throughout last season. I had a disappointing go at it this year, finishing 5th, but did manage to make some calculated dump trades at the deadline that should allow me to contend in '08 if draft day goes according to plan.

My thoughts on who I am to keep and why are below, as of today anyway, as they are most certainly subject to change as more information comes out during the Hot Stove season. Keep in in mind that in addition to a keeper league, SRB has strict rules surrounding Free Agent pickups so taking risks is discouraged a great deal. SRB is not like your typical Yahoo league and you better be sure as to who you draft because you'll likely be stuck with them for several months at least.

No Brainer Drops
Garrett Anderson, $20
Billy Butler, $20
Joakim Soria, $20
Miguel Tejada, $20
Felipe Lopez, $12
John Buck, $10
Cameron Maybin, $5

These are all priced way too high (SRB free agent pickups are $20 after the break) or just bad players.

No Brainer Keepers
2B - Chase Utley, $9
SS - Hanley Ramirez, $10
OF - Eric Byrnes, $1
SP - Kelvim Escobar, $3
SP - Justin Verlander, $1


These are 5 players where I am significantly paying less than market value. A quick estimate is $80 - $85 dollars saved with this crew. The key to any keeper list is to retain as much statistical value as possible while expending as little salary as possible.

With the exception of superstar power, one should always try to avoid keeping players for what they are worth (and obviously never keep overpriced talent). "Test" each player by determining their rough expected value for next season. If there is a chance you can drop the player, and pick him up the following season for less than you currently own him, it is worth the risk to drop him.

I mentioned superstar power. A case can be made that you need to pay market value for superstars as it is not easy to win without them and they can only be obtained at high prices. The real value a superstar player brings is consistency - when the player assured to produce it's acceptable to pay a premium. For instance, if you have Alex Rodriguez you can be reasonably confident he'll be a standout again next season. His bat is irreplaceable since his off-years are better than most others good years. When faced with this situation, paying market value can make sense since you have a guaranteed return. However, I don't recommend more than one of these types of players per team.

The rest of my roster is filled with question marks:
SP, Roy Oswalt, $28
SP, Chuck James, $2
SP, Ian Snell, $3

I like my two stand-out keepers Escobar and Verlander but a contending team almost always has a legitimate #1 pitcher. Verlander could be this, but he is not guaranteed, and given I have plenty of value at this point it may make sense to pay Market Value for Oswalt. I made a case that Oswalt may be an undervalued commodity next year, but at the same time he fits the mold as a legit #1. I am leaning towards keeping him.

Chuck James is every mans perfect $2 pitcher. At $2 he can have an average season and not kill you, but his upside is significant and you could see his value ramp up into the teens. His WHIP is too high (1.37) but he pitched well enough for stretches at a time last year that I don't mind spending the few bucks hoping he improves.

Finally, Ian Snell. I thought for sure I would be keeping him at the $3 price tag - in mid-July he was on pace to win 15 games with a 3.11 ERA and 1.20 WHIP - another no brainer keeper. But his second half was terrible (4.69 ERA, 86 IP, 97 H) and is making me question whether or not to take two borderline keepers into draft day when this may tie my hands and prevent me from obtaining good talent during the draft. If I keep the 5 mentioned, I only need two more starters and is a rotation with James, Snell, and a few more potential question marks good enough? Well, I think so and here's why I'll probably keep Snell. Yes, his second half was poor but he is only 25 and bound to improve through experience, but more importantly, he turned it around late. Even during his rough stretches he was holding onto a strikeout rate close to a a batter per inning and finished the season with 33 IP, 28 H, 26 K, 1.64 ERA.

CL, Trevor Hoffman, $17
CL, Jason Isringhausen, $10
CL, Takashi Saito, $10

I loathe paying for closers, but in a league where Free Agency is limited, you have to do so because you can't wait for for previously unknown closers to surface. First, they are almost always not guaranteed to hold down the job for any length of time, and second, waiting is death in SRB. We are a weekly league with all transactions going through the waiver wire order. One could be waiting all summer and not get a chance to pick 'your guy'.

At the same time, I have only ever won SRB when punting saves by relying on great middle relievers to keep my WHIP and ERA down while only spending $3 total dollars on them, allowing me to spend a lot of money elsewhere. This backfired two years ago when I picked middle relievers who weren't great all season long, and by getting league average rate stats without saves, I killed my pitching totals. So, I went the closer route last year.

Saito is truly great (143 IP, 81 H, 185 K in two U.S. seasons) and easily worth the $10. Isringhausen is not as good , however coming off a great season (2.48 ERA, 1.07 WHIP). The rub here is that in 2008 could just as easily toss up a 3.50 ERA like he did two years ago. I'll try to move him and see what I can get in return. Still, a closer in a solid role with ERA's in the two's or three's is easily worth $10 and if I can't move him, I'll likely keep him. That leaves Hoffman at $17, priced a bit high, but again almost guaranteed to give you 35 saves and ERA in the two's. The idea of not having to draft any closers is extremely tempting as it is the area I draft the poorest in, but I can't break my rule of keepers - I could probably get Hoffman for $17 next draft day, but he's not a superstar, and therefore I drop him.

C, Chris Ianetta, $7 - Ianetta may be worth $7 next year, I don't think his career is over or anything, but can you justify $7 for a maybe? No, don't think so, and he will be dropped.

1B, Adam LaRoche, $11
3B, Casey Blake, $10

The two corner infielders are difficult decisions. Here are two players that you would most definitely settle for on draft day next year given these prices. Despite a terrible start, LaRoche still managed almost 90 RBI and over 20 HR and there were a plenty of rosters with first basemen who didn't do as well. Ditto with Blake, his line was basically .270, 20/80/80 which is solid at third base and nothing to sniff at. There were third basemen on rosters who had 10/60/60 and Blake easily beats these marks next year as well. But I can't accept the feeling of settling, and perhaps these players can be good for fall back positions. Bottom line is that on offense I have the ability to spend money - Utley, Ramirez, and Byrnes for $22 is highway robbery, and I should take that free money and spend it on some guaranteed offensive production.

Which brings me too outfielders

OF, Alfonso Soriano, $42
OF, Nick Markakis, $11
OF, Austin Kearns, $2

In all likelihood Soriano bats .300 with 100 R, 85 RBI, 35 HR, and 35 SB next year. This is worth about $40 with inflation counted in making him a viable "superstar at market value" keeper next year. Markakis, just 23 years old, lived up to the pre-season hype by going .300 / .362 / .485, with 23 HR, 97 R, 112 RBI, and 18 SB. In hindsight, he is a candidate for a no-brainer keeper at his $11 salary and could even improve upon those numbers in 2008

Kearns is on the list above but I have no intentions keeping him. I put him down because at $2 someone else may think he's worth it but outfielders who go .265, 15/70/70 with little speed are a dime a dozen, and if you shoot low you'll score low. Save the roster spot and try to nab a $10 outfielder for $2 instead of settling for a $2 outfielder at the same price.

If you are still with me, given the above selections, my roster ends up:

Final Projected Keepers
C -
C -
1B -
2B - Chase Utley, $9
3B -
SS - Hanley Ramirez, $10
OF - Eric Byrnes, $1
OF - Nick Markakis, $11
OF -
OF -
OF -
CI
MI
UT
UT

SP - Kelvim Escobar, $3
SP - Justin Verlander, $1
SP - Roy Oswalt, $28 (maybe)
SP - Chuck James, $2
SP - Ian Snell, $3
SP -
SP -
CL - Takashi Saito, $10
CL - Jason Isringhausen, $10
CL -

I love the pitching staff, and if I keep Oswalt will focus either on some upside picks in the $5-10 range. If I drop Oswalt, I will spend $25 - $30 on the best pitcher available outside of Johan Santana. If it is Oswalt so be it.

I have to spend a lot of money on batters and I know for a fact Lance Berkman, Joe Mauer, David Ortiz, Carl Crawford, Brian Roberts, Miggy Cabrera, and David Wright among others will be available since their contracts are up. This leads met to shy away Soriano a bit, knowing that I could probably have Ortiz at $42.

Hopefully you took this exercise as way to gleam some tidbits into whom I like for next year rather than a rant on my own fantasy team. I wholeheartedly recommend that you spend the time know going through similar exercises with your own team, as the saying goes, "knowledge is power".